Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 86166.042686 90926.350763 95684.558616 100794.200740 106122.547834 111511.732565 117371.038940
2025-02-16 77733.064979 84979.791909 92426.366717 100639.840137 109434.511742 118558.519493 128729.172880
2025-02-23 72157.851359 81116.959421 90524.933082 101119.457404 112696.231265 124940.321671 138847.246344
2025-03-02 67610.421258 77817.755348 88733.632337 101240.649077 115138.141711 130070.545809 147291.064641
2025-03-09 64695.557794 75996.256900 88272.539403 102547.645951 118636.830069 136155.449414 156617.462450
2025-03-16 61184.334437 73246.955914 86542.799759 102215.093542 120109.954898 139831.347610 163132.762622
2025-03-23 59252.569459 72139.889157 86528.860689 103693.934674 123517.409702 145595.107539 171941.798783
2025-03-30 57224.011255 70787.693648 86116.523534 104608.852174 126192.433658 150465.594831 179699.686884
2025-04-06 54976.915399 69058.398100 85158.716071 104790.760241 127936.284481 154206.886598 186121.716023
2025-04-13 52803.499763 67311.701210 84085.778747 104748.978399 129343.670365 157502.833686 191991.473214
2025-04-20 51690.865313 66775.601971 84392.261343 106292.769989 132583.171042 162917.427761 200338.926212
2025-04-27 50679.972997 66307.307034 84733.177750 107839.394383 135801.448799 168300.289498 208664.399045
2025-05-04 49254.466814 65297.074093 84400.724855 108571.950828 138065.360183 172599.997635 215789.278308
2025-05-11 47527.526522 63852.230554 83486.660784 108553.249519 139392.593442 175771.700458 221579.959184
2025-05-18 46188.169467 62841.618845 83061.358654 109094.220997 141371.349659 179711.167128 228297.143204
2025-05-25 44736.411610 61634.376111 82343.586847 109229.712386 142819.314705 182989.608253 234213.035925
2025-06-01 43964.639689 61265.673174 82649.349992 110620.924219 145806.801622 188143.000774 242429.836738
2025-06-08 42434.829427 59863.652986 81602.126857 110267.624544 146590.507842 190578.195007 247316.430849
2025-06-15 41854.103909 59678.078203 82085.696031 111840.038718 149780.594554 195983.319384 255880.823575
2025-06-22 41042.661270 59157.973002 82114.574128 112812.691165 152205.027089 200443.601291 263297.453635
2025-06-29 39937.167231 58210.612226 81558.776259 113006.066830 153621.414868 203640.740884 269150.791116
2025-07-06 38784.645346 57164.573020 80842.021844 112961.652693 154711.651245 206417.248595 274479.508751
2025-07-13 38380.199582 57116.526315 81424.377937 114602.593044 157965.871471 211927.443070 283266.891989